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Prediction for CME (2015-07-19T09:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-07-19T09:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8951/-1
CME Note: The arrival time for the CME is a little uncertain since it was possible embedded with a CIR preceding a CH HSS
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-07-22T15:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-07-22T20:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2015 Jul 21 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of nominal conditions. Solar wind
speed fluctuated between 269 and 306 km/s throughout the reporting
period. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 3
and 10 nT while the greatest southward deflection of the Bz component
was -6 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) sector.
   
.Forecast...
A trans-equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) is expected to become geoeffective early on day one (21 Jul). A
return to nominal conditions is expected by day two (22 Jul). Enhanced
solar wind parameters are expected early on day three (23 Jul) with the
arrival of the 19 Jul CME associated with the filament eruption from
the SW quadrant centered near S32W52.

Lead Time: 70.12 hour(s)
Difference: -4.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-07-19T17:23Z

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